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 Guest Commentary
April 11, 2001
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Missile Defense Could Make Us Less Secure
The Honorable Joseph Biden
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How could a national missile defense make us less secure? First, it could lead Russia to rely upon MIRV'ed ICBM's – held on hair-trigger alert – rather than destroying those missiles or downloading warheads, as required by START Two.
We find it hard to believe that Russia would feel threatened by a limited national missile defense. But, Russian military planners see it differently.
They view most of their strategic forces – including nearly all of their submarine-launched missiles – as vulnerable to a first strike.
In their worst-case scenario, a U.S. limited national missile defense could block a Russian second strike that was limited to its mobile ICBM's and the missiles from a single submarine on patrol.
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How can Russia respond to that worst-case threat? The all-too-likely answer is that they will maintain their MIRV'ed ICBM's as long as they can, and MIRV their new SS-27, to maximize their firepower. And they will keep their silo-based missiles on hair-trigger alert, to guard against losing them to a U.S. first strike. Given the Swiss-cheese nature of Russia's missile warning network, Russia will be exposing itself – and us – to a much increased risk of accidental war.
How else could a national missile defense make us less secure? It could lead China to build many more strategic missiles than it would otherwise field. According to the papers, our Intelligence Community predicts up to a ten-fold increase. That increase could fuel, in turn, an arms race with India, followed by Pakistan.
And I ask you: as those Asian powers build up their nuclear arsenals, how long can we expect Taiwan, the two Koreas and Japan to refrain from taking the same road?
In short, national missile defense could lead to a world with more nuclear weapons, more nuclear powers, and more weapons on hair-trigger alert. Is that a world in which we are more secure than today? Not in my book!
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Joseph Biden, a Democrat, is a U.S. Senator from Delaware. The above commentary has been adapted from a speech Sen. Biden delivered before The Hall of States event, sponsored by the Center for Defense Information and the Coalition to Reduce Nuclear Dangers, April 4, 2001. To contact him, Click Here.
The above column has been distributed by PoliticsOL.com.
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